Wednesday’s bond market has opened well in positive territory following a couple of unexpected headlines. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 263 points and the Nasdaq down 62 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32 (4.64%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. 15/32 Bonds 30 yr - 4.64% 263 Dow 53,607 62 NASDAQ 26,227
Indexes Affecting Rate Lock MediumPositiveGeneral Bond TrendsWe don’t have any relevant economic data to be concerned about today, but there are a couple of afternoon events that we will be watching. This morning’s bond rally is being fueled by an unexpected announcement from Treasury Secretary Bessent that the Treasury Department was going to double the size of their buybacks of long-term Treasury securities. The funds being used for this will come from currently scheduled auctions, meaning they aren’t reducing the amount of debt the U.S. owes. They are trying to improve liquidity in the bond market in an effort to reduce yields. While the move obviously helped this morning, raising buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion in a Treasury market of approximately $31 trillion isn’t going to do much good over the long term. In other words, don’t look for this to be a catalyst to start a downward trend in mortgage rates. LowPositiveTariff NewsThis morning’s other news was an announcement from President Trump that he was pausing the 50% tariffs on many Canadian goods because a deal with Canada is close to being reached. The positive reaction to his words is just a small part of this morning’s rally but it does go to the lower tariffs mean lower inflationary pressures, making bonds more attractive to investors. MediumUnknownTreasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)First up for the scheduled events is the 1:00 PM ET results announcement of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction. This is another sale that will give us an idea of investor appetite for long-term securities. Good news for mortgage rates would be a strong investor demand since they are based on long-term debt. We may see bond yields drop and mortgage rates revise lower this afternoon if the sale draws a strong interest, particularly from international buyers. However, weak interest in the securities may lead to an upward revision to pricing before the end of the day. MediumUnknownFOMC Meeting MinutesThe second event is the 2:00 PM ET release of the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting. The key points traders are looking for are discussions amongst Fed members about inflation, the future of the employment sector, and how the Iran war may affect the Fed's plans for key short-term interest rates. The markets are currently predicting the Fed will raise short-term rates sometime this year to help push inflation lower as it remains stubbornly above the Fed’s goal rate of 2.00%. If the minutes indicate that rate hike may be coming sooner than later, we may see a negative reaction in bonds that leads to an upward move in mortgage rates before the end of the day. MediumUnknownWeekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)Tomorrow brings us two moderately influential economic releases, starting with last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 210,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made during the week. This would be a minor increase from the previous week’s 209,000. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, so the larger the number the better the news for tomorrow’s mortgage rates. MediumUnknownLeading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference BoardThe week's final release is July's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index attempts to predict future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase from June's reading, meaning the indicators are pointing towards flat economic growth over the next several months. A larger decline would be favorable news for mortgage pricing because bonds are more appealing to investors during weaker economic activity.
Float / Lock Recommendation If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
